IMEF reports timid progress in the economy

The Mexican Institute of Finance Executives (IMEF) points out that the economy regained some dynamism in the month, but the slow pace of expansion continued during the second quarter of 2024. Its Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing indicators for the month of June recorded figures that indicate a moderate expansion.

Recent data developments indicate that economic growth in the first half of 2024 has been weak. GDP in the first quarter of 2024 recorded quarterly growth of 0.3%, slightly higher than the meager growth of 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2023, and the trend suggested by the IMEF Indicators points to moderate growth for the second quarter of the year. The economy is clearly on hold compared to the solid dynamism observed during 2022 and much of 2023.

In June, the IMEF Manufacturing Indicator increased by 0.4 points compared to the previous month, still at the limit of the contraction zone, registering a level of 49.5 units. The trend-cycle series decreased by -0.3 points, reaching 49.2. The indicator adjusted for company size rose by 0.8 points, reaching 51.2 units. The trend-cycle series has been in a contraction zone for three monthswhile the indicator adjusted for company size has registered another consecutive month of expansion, after having contracted last April and where it ended a cycle of 30 consecutive months in the expansion zone.

The results suggest that the manufacturing sector has stagnated during the second quarter of 2024. In line with what the IMEF Indicator has been reporting in recent months, the June data confirms slow manufacturing activity.

For its part, the IMEF Non-Manufacturing Indicator increased by 0.6 points compared to May, closing above the 50-unit threshold. Thus, the Non-Manufacturing Indicator remains in the expansion zone (51.0), having already accumulated 29 months in this area, although in recent months the Indicator has lost strength. The cycle trend series fell -0.1 to close at 50.7 unitswhile the indicator adjusted for company size rose 0.9 points, reaching 51.8 units. Both indicators have remained in expansionary territory for 41 and 34 months respectively. Based on the above, it is possible to say that the services and trade sectors continue to lead the dynamism of the economy.